About me
I am a researcher at The Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU). I am also affiliated with the Uppsala Center for Labor Studies. I defended my PhD thesis Job Loss: Consequences and Labor Market Policy at Uppsala University for which I received an honorable mention in the Upjohn Institute Dissertation Award and The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Arnbergska Prize.
My main research interests lies first and foremost within labor economics and applied econometrics. Much of my research focuses on questions surrounding job loss and unemployment; its consequences for individual workers and how various labor market polices could be used and affect subsequent labor market outcomes.
Research interests: Labor economics, Applied econometrics, Public economics
Research
Mandatory Notice of Layoff, Job Search, and Efficiency
with Peter Fredriksson, Arash Nekoei and David Seim
Forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics
[Abstract]
Coverage : RJ , Publikt , Arbetsvärlden
In all OECD countries, Mandatory Notice (MN) policies require firms to inform workers in advance of a layoff. In our theoretical framework, MN helps workers avoid unemployment and find better jobs by encouraging workers to search for a new job while still employed, thereby increasing future production. The magnitude of this production gain depends on the relative effectiveness of search while employed versus unemployed. But on-the-job search and diminished work incentives reduce current production. If future gains outweigh current production losses, longer advance notice improves production efficiency. If not, Coasian bargaining predicts that firms offer a larger severance instead of longer notice. With bargaining, the sole efficiency loss of MN is due to delayed separations of unproductive job matches. We test these predictions using novel Swedish administrative data on layoff notifications. Workers eligible for extended MN receive longer notice and larger severance, resulting in less exposure to non-employment spells and higher-paying jobs. These favorable labor market outcomes are solely due to longer notice; in contrast, larger severance delays job finding and has no impact on wages. We also show that advance notice replaces job search while unemployed with more effective search while employed. On the production side, we document a productivity drop among notified workers and estimate a production loss due to delayed separations. Using our estimates of production gains and losses to evaluate the overall production efficiency, we conclude that the gains of MN seem to outweigh the losses.
The Role of Caseworkers: Job Finding, Job Quality and Determinants of Value-Added
with Martin Söderström and Johan Vikström
Conditionally accepted for Journal of European Economic Association
[Abstract]   [Policy report (Swedish)]   [Outreach report (Swedish)]   [Lecture (Swedish)]
Coverage : RJ , Forskning , Sveriges Radio , Akademikern , Publikt , Aftonbladet , Kvalitetsmagasinet
We study the importance of caseworkers and their role in supporting unemployed job seekers. By exploiting as-if random variation, arising from job seekers in Sweden being assigned to caseworkers based on their date of birth, we estimate caseworker value-added along several dimensions. We show that caseworkers have meaningful effects on both job seekers' time in unemployment and subsequent job quality. These effects also impact job seekers' long-run outcomes and are heterogeneous across groups of job seekers. We find only weak trade-offs between different dimensions of value added. Leveraging detailed administrative data on both caseworkers and job seekers, we document that experienced caseworkers perform better than their less experienced counterparts. Caseworker work-strategies are important in determining value added, and matching caseworkers to job seekers based on previous labor-market experiences lead to better outcomes.
Reconsidering the Cost of Job Loss: Evidence from Redundancies and Mass Layoffs
[Abstract]   [Policy report (Swedish)]
Coverage : Wall Street Journal , Sveriges Radio , Forskning , Kvalitetsmagasinet , VDtidningen , Ekonomiekot Extra
Extended Unemployment Benefits and the Hazard to Employment
[Abstract]   [Policy report (Swedish)]
Coverage : Arbetsvärlden , Dagens Arena , Arbetet
Previous studies estimating the effect of generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) on unemployment duration has found that as job-seekers approach benefit exhaustion the probability of leaving unemployment increases sharply. Such ``spikes'' in the hazard rate has generally been interpreted as shirking among job-seekers timing their employment to coincide with benefit exhaustion. This, however, has been called into question by Card et al. (2007b) who claim that such spikes rather reflect flight out of the labor force as benefits run out. This paper revisits this debate by studying a 30 week UI benefit extension in Sweden and its effects on unemployment duration, duration on UI as well as the timing of employment. As the UI extension is predicated upon a job-seeker having a child below the age of 18 at the time of regular UI exhaustion this provides quasi-experimental variation which I exploit using a regression discontinuity design. I find that although increasing potential UI duration by 30 weeks increases actual take up by about 2.7 weeks, overall duration in unemployment and the probability of employment is largely unaffected. Moreover, I find no evidence of job-seekers manipulating the hazard to employment such that it coincides with UI benefit exhaustion.
Ongoing projects (selection)
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Resources
BibTex
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What does reserach tell us about the effects of UI? (Swedish)Contact Me
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Mobile number
+46 (0) 706 720 074 -
Email
jonas.cederlof@ifau.uu.se -
Address
Kyrkogårdsgatan 6, 753 12 Uppsala, Sweden